Cold-climate heat pumps: how much heat they keep at 5°F
Of the 2,613 rated outdoor products in the ENERGY STAR list of certified heat pumps, certified as of October 27, 2026, 1,966 (75%) carry the EPA cold-climate designation in at least one certified match, and 533 list at least as much heating capacity at 5°F as at 47°F. Designated split systems keep a median 84% of their 47°F capacity at 5°F; the others keep 54%.
What the list says about 5°F
Every certified match in the EPA data carries three heating capacities, at 47°F, 17°F and 5°F, plus a COP at 5°F. This site divides the 5°F figure by the 47°F figure of the same match and calls the result "kept at 5°F". A value of 80% means the listing shows four fifths of its mild-weather heat at 5°F. A value above 100% is how the listing reads, not a slip on this site: many variable-speed units list a larger capacity at 5°F than at 47°F.
The cold-climate designation is a separate field. EPA publishes it per match as Yes or No, and this site shows it exactly as published. Where a designated match lists less than 70% of its 47°F capacity at 5°F, the product page also states that ratio as a plain number. EPA tests the designation against a nominal 47°F capacity, which does not always equal the listed value. Such matches number 1,271, spread over 57 rated products.
The designation by product type
Mini- and multi-splits carry the designation far more often than split systems: 82% of 1,604 against 66% of 936. Among the 73 single-package units the share is 42%. The gap in listed output between designated and other products is widest for split systems, at 31 percentage points.
| EPA category | Rated products | With the designation | Median kept at 5°F, designated | Median, not designated | At least 100% at 5°F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split systems | 936 | 615 (66%) | 84% | 54% | 114 |
| Mini- and multi-splits | 1,604 | 1,320 (82%) | 87% | 65% | 414 |
| Single-package | 73 | 31 (42%) | 73% | 46% | 5 |
The table also shows how common it is to list more heat at 5°F than at 47°F. Mini- and multi-splits account for 414 such products, split systems for 114 and single-package units for 5. Among split systems such a listing is rare, which is why the Carrier 27VNA154A…030 stands out: it keeps the largest share among the 147 rated 5-ton split systems.
Size class matters as much as type
The share with the designation moves a lot from one size class to the next. It is highest in the 6,000 Btu/h class (93%, 25 of 27) and lowest in the 3.5-ton class (37%, 14 of 38). Among split systems the 2-ton class keeps a median of 82% at 5°F, the largest of any split-system class, while the 3.5-ton class has a median of 52%. Only 18% of the 3.5-ton outdoor units in the list are variable-speed.
COP at 5°F is a different question
Kept at 5°F describes how much heat a unit lists; COP at 5°F describes how much heat it lists per unit of electricity at that temperature. The two do not move together. Designated split systems have a median COP at 5°F of 2.00, designated mini- and multi-splits 2.00. A unit can keep its full capacity at 5°F at an ordinary COP, or list a high COP with a smaller share of its heat. The cold finder filters on both, so a list can be narrowed to products that clear a chosen share and a chosen COP at once.
One product, several answers
Ratings belong to matches, and a single outdoor unit can be designated in some matches and not in others. The Toshiba Carrier MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL is an example: 6 of its 7 certified matches are designated, and in 3 of those the listed 5°F capacity is 55%–56% of the listed 47°F capacity. Its page shows the designation as EPA publishes it and the ratio next to it, with no further judgement. Product pages always name the match a figure comes from, and the side-by-side view shows the lowest match next to the best one.
Reading these figures carefully
Listed capacities come from certification tests under fixed conditions. They say what a matched system is rated to deliver, not what a particular house will get, and the list does not say how much heat a building needs. This site does not size equipment and does not give installation advice; the figures here are a starting point for a conversation with whoever designs the system.
The list also changes every week as products are certified and others drop out. All counts on this page refer to the file certified as of October 27, 2026.
Sources
- U.S. EPA, ENERGY STAR Certified Heat Pumps (data.energystar.gov, dataset 83eb-xbyy), certified as of 2026-10-27.
- Rating families, ratios, medians, ranks and class bands computed by heatpumpratings.online; see How the ratings are read.
- ENERGY STAR key product criteria for air-source heat pumps (energystar.gov), for the definition of the cold-climate designation.